Egypt, Mubarak Resigns
We have been waiting for the resolution demanded by the protesting crowds in Cairo and Alexandria, that President Mubarak should resign. It has been difficult to avoid worry that the tense situation might turn bloody, but it appears that is not going to happen beyond the lives lost up to this point. Mubarak resigned on Feb 11.
My colleague, Peter Bancel, living in France, has better news access than we in the US. Early on the 11th, he sent this description of the situation, leading him to suggest the day, beginning at noon in Egypt and for the next 12 hours, would be a well-characterized GCP event.
The GCP event was set for noon to midnight on the 11th, which includes the noon prayer period and, as it turns out, also the actual announcement of the resignation. The result is 43003.816 on 43200 df, for p = 0.747 and Z = -0.666. The time of the announcement, 5 pm local time, is marked on the figure.
Although our formal analysis is made using the full network of 65-70 eggs, it is interesting to look at the data from relatively local eggs. In this case, we have an egg in Cairo, ID# 2248 hosted by Dr. Fahmy. Examining the data from this single device, we see a striking deviation beginning around the time of the announcement, and persisting to the end of the formally specified event. As noted, this is not a formal analysis, but the departure amounts to 2.3 sigma, and would happen about once in 100 random selections of a data sequence of this length.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.