Oscar Ceremonies, 2004

The Oscar Ceremonies for 2004 began with TV special coverage of preliminaries about 8:00, EST, Feb 29, and continued until just past midnight, ending at 12:09 with the major awards for best actors, pictures, and directors. I watched, and thought it was a good show, and made a formal prediction. I consulted with some other people and decided on the show time proper, beginning at 20:00 and ending at 00:09, which translates to 01:00 to 05:09 GMT (March 1). The figure tells the story, namely, the EGG network did not get excited over the Oscars. The final Chisquare is 14937 on 14940 df, with p = 0.505.

Oscar Ceremonies, 2004

Of course the Oscar evening is a US-centric event, which is described by some commentators as "Hollywood congratulating Hollywood." In any case it is worthwhile to see what the outcome might be if we look at data only from US eggs, of which there were 19 reporting on this evening. The following figure shows a striking trend, steadily downward for most of the evening, and then a sharp inflection and a reversal of direction. The second figure shows just the last half hour of the ceremonies, when most of the "big" awards are given: the best actor and actress, best director, and best movie. That half hour shows a very strong positive outcome, which if it had been formally predicted would be associated with a probability against chance of 0.0004.

Oscar Ceremonies, 2004

Oscar Ceremonies, 2004


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