Wellstone Plane Crash
Along with vast numbers of other Americans, including people on both sides of the political spectrum, I was deeply saddened by the news that Senator Paul Wellstone, the passionately liberal Democrat whose re-election campaign was vital to control of the Senate, was killed in a plane crash in northern Minnesota on Friday along with his wife, daughter and five others.
The twin-engine private plane went down about 10 a.m. in freezing rain and light snow near the Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport, about 175 miles north of Minneapolis.
After worrying about the US-centric nature of the event, I decided to make a formal prediction after all, because there is a poignancy about this sad occurence that I think is one of the elements of a "global event". The crash occurred at about 10:00 Minnesota time, and I decided on an event duration of two hours beginning then. The analysis period was thus from 15:00 to 17:00 GMT, on 25 October, 2002. Standard analysis and medium confidence.
The following figure shows the result, which has chi-square of 7288.6 on 7200 df, for a p-value of 0.230.
Since this is a US-centric event, it makes sense to have an exploratory look at the behavior of the US eggs only. The following figure shows the result from the 18 eggs that are located in the US, including Alaska. The trend is much more impressive and has a terminal accumulation of chi-square 7402.1 on 7200 df, for p = 0.047.